My research focuses on Macroeconometrics and Financial Econometrics, especially applying time series methods for business cycle, monetary policy, and financial markets analysis.

Christian Conrad, Julius Schölkopf and Nikoleta Tushteva

Long-Term Volatility Shapes the Stock Market’s Sensitivity to News

We show that the S&P 500’s instantaneous response to surprises in U.S. macroeconomic announcements depends on the level of long-term stock market volatility. When long-term volatility is high, stock returns are more sensitive to news, and there is a pronounced asymmetry in the response to good and bad news. We explain this by combining the Campbell-Shiller log-linear present value framework with a two-component volatility model for the conditional variance of cash flow news and allowing for volatility feedback. In our model, innovations to the long-term volatility component are the most important driver of discount rate news. Large announcement surprises lead to upward revisions in future required returns, which dampens/amplifies the effect of good/bad news.

Conference and seminar presentations

Economic Expectations, Survey Data, and Experiments Workshop in Heidelberg (July 2022)*, University of Heidelberg (February 2023, June 2023), University of Sussex (March 2023)*, International Conference for Quantitative Finance and Financial Econometrics at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics (June 2023), Society of Financial Econometrics (SoFiE) European Summer School (June 2023), 10th HKMetrics Workshop in Karlsruhe (July 2023), Econometric Society European Meeting (August 2023), Verein für Socialpolitik Annual Conference (September 2023), Oxford Statistics and Machine Learning in Finance Seminar (November 2023)*, 17th BMRG Conference on Macro and Financial Econometrics (November 2023)*, Workshop on Economic and Financial Forecasting in Karlsruhe (December 2023), 4th HeiTüHo Workshop on International Financial Markets in Tübingen (December 2023), The Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Symposium in Padova (March 2024)*, CIREQ-CMP Econometrics Conference in Honor of Eric Ghysels in Montreal (May 2024)*, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis International Conference on Economics, Econometrics and Finance at Brunel University London (May 2024), Finance Seminar at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (June, 2024)*, Monetary and Capital Markets Policy Forum at the International Monetary Fund (IMF, July 2024, scheduled). 

The * indicates a presentation by a co-author.

Christian Conrad, Julius Schölkopf, Michael Weber and Frank Brückbauer

Beyond the Numbers: Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance

Using the unique ZEW Financial Markets Survey panel, a monthly survey among German professional forecasters, we elicit which narratives forecasters entertain about the relationship between inflation and stock return expectations. In the high inflation environment of December 2022, forecasters are characterized by very heterogeneous beliefs about inflation and stock returns in 2023. We show that their beliefs are consistent with their narratives. Using a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we expose forecasters to an information treatment about future inflation. We provide causal evidence for the hypothesis that the subsequent updating of stock market expectations depends on the narrative entertained. In subsequent survey waves, we confirm that the narratives provide additional information beyond the point forecasts.

Conference and seminar presentations

ZEW Mannheim (June 2024), University of Heidelberg (July 2024), 6th Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop – Heterogeneity and Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance (organized by IMK, Uni Heidelberg, Uni Bamberg and the Australian National University, July 2024), 11th HKMetrics Workshop (July 2024, scheduled) 

The * indicates a presentation by a co-author.

Christian Conrad, Zeno Enders, Julius Schölkopf

Heterogeneous Expectation Formation. Evidence from International Forecasts

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